Deutsche Bank has delved into centuries of economic data, unearthing potential indicators of imminent recessions and deciphering patterns that span across 323 years of global economic trends. This exploration of economic cycles includes a list of recessions, expansions, and market downturns dating back to the 1700s, meticulously dissecting the triggers and warning signs behind historical recessions.
Dear clients,
We would like to inform you that due to the U.S. Labour Day, on September 4 and 5, 2023, there will be changes to the trading hours of some markets:
In a significant move, Fitch Ratings has downgraded the United States’ Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) from ‘AAA’ to ‘AA+’. This action, announced on August 1, 2023, is the reflection of concerns regarding the nation’s fiscal health, governance standards, and debt management, thereby signalling to investors and the global markets about the increased risk of lending to the United States. With markets currently in the red, the immediate impact of this downgrade is still unfolding.
After weeks of high-stakes negotiations, U.S. President Joe Biden and House Republicans have arrived at a preliminary agreement to manage the debt limit and curtail spending. Though it’s far from finalised, this agreement has started to reshape the political and economic landscape. Leaders from both parties now face the challenge of swaying their members to back the agreement, which includes elements that don’t entirely align with either party’s agenda.
In recent times, there have been fascinating developments as China intensifies its efforts to challenge the dollar and establish the yuan as a global currency, also known as the PetroYuan. This shift in power dynamics is marked by several significant events that we will explore in this analysis.
The prolonged period of low interest rates has led to banks operating in a certain way, and now that rates are rising, certain banks are finding it difficult to adjust. This was highlighted by the recent announcement from Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) that it is insolvent.